Sorry, your blog cannot share posts by email. Granted, none of those changes — say, 24 percent versus 31 percent — are necessarily that large. Filed under Election posts Democratic Primary Iowa And Iowa was extremely helpful to Buttigieg, whose chances of winning the delegate majority were fairly low even with Iowa — keep in mind that he had slipped to third in polls of Iowa and fifth in national polls — but would have been virtually nonexistent less than 1 percent without it. Since the nomination process is sequential — states vote one at a time rather than all at once — we had to determine, empirically, how much the results of one state can affect the rest. But the Democratic field might have remained a little more diverse. Iowa hurt Biden, however, whose chances of a delegate majority would have been 50 percent without it, rather than 43 percent with it. Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight. The chance of there being no delegate majority was 17 percent without Iowa, but would have been 20 percent with it.
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